The World is Not Ending Today

QI TAKEAWAY —  ADP beat all but one forecast in the Bloomberg survey. This should keep the Fed on track for a November taper and a curve flattening in play. The curve ball is the GOP’s détente suggestion that the debt ceiling be resolved next month via reconciliation; the “gift” of the extra month diffuses Democrats claims that they don’t have adequate time to increase the debt ceiling along party lines by the ‘X’ date of October 18th.

  1. Since April 2020, roughly 40% of job gains have come from leisure & hospitality, per ADP, well above the 20% average from 2010-2019; meanwhile, non-leisure has underperformed in the post-pandemic environment, seeing just 60% of job gains vs. 80% in the decade prior
  2. ADP’s September payroll report saw a gain of 568,000, well above August’s initially reported 330,000; sectors underperforming headline growth included professional services and trade/transportation while manufacturing, education, and healthcare outperformed
  3. Since 2006, ADP Aggregate Hours Worked have had correlations of 0.9 and 0.88 to real GDP growth and real GDI growth, respectively; assuming the workweek is unchanged at 34.7 hours from August, ADP suggests a 4% QoQ annualized rate of expansion in Q3